So this morning, I got curious to see what the 2016 primary results in the city of Chicago could tell us about Wisconsin. I imagine the Milwaukee voters are similar to Chicago and this could potentially give us an insight to how Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton will do in that city. Listening to the pundits, Milwaukee appears to be a critical area of Wisconsin for Hillary Clinton, and for her to win the state, she will need to perform well in the city.
Even though Clinton won Illinois, it was a very close result, and Bernie Sanders out performed expectations. The expectations were raised significantly after his win in Michigan, but before Michigan no one expected Sanders to come close to Clinton. But Sanders nearly tied Clinton and it was very close to a tie.
The reason that Illinois was so close is Clinton under-performed in the city of Chicago. Looking at the results for the city, which can be found at the Chicago Board of Elections website, Clinton came in with 53.74% vs Sander at 45.27%. Clinton should have had a
significantly higher result in Chicago if we believe the conventional wisdom that Sanders doesn’t do well with minority. Per the 2010 Census, in the city of Chicago, African-Americans, and Latino-Americans make up just over 60% of the population, which are considered to be stronger supporters of Hillary Clinton than Bernie Sanders. So just based on this, Clinton should have had a greater advantage in Chicago than her results.