So this morning, I got curious to see what the 2016 primary results in the city of Chicago could tell us about Wisconsin. I imagine the Milwaukee voters are similar to Chicago and this could potentially give us an insight to how Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton will do in that city. Listening to the pundits, Milwaukee appears to be a critical area of Wisconsin for Hillary Clinton, and for her to win the state, she will need to perform well in the city.
Even though Clinton won Illinois, it was a very close result, and Bernie Sanders out performed expectations. The expectations were raised significantly after his win in Michigan, but before Michigan no one expected Sanders to come close to Clinton. But Sanders nearly tied Clinton and it was very close to a tie.
The reason that Illinois was so close is Clinton under-performed in the city of Chicago. Looking at the results for the city, which can be found at the Chicago Board of Elections website, Clinton came in with 53.74% vs Sander at 45.27%. Clinton should have had a
significantly higher result in Chicago if we believe the conventional wisdom that Sanders doesn’t do well with minority. Per the 2010 Census, in the city of Chicago, African-Americans, and Latino-Americans make up just over 60% of the population, which are considered to be stronger supporters of Hillary Clinton than Bernie Sanders. So just based on this, Clinton should have had a greater advantage in Chicago than her results.
Combining the data from the Chicago Tribune article showing the racial makeup of individual Chicago wards, and the election results by Ward as provided by the Chicago Election Commission, you can tell how Clinton and Sanders did in each ward and compare it the racial makeup. The most surprising result was that Clinton did not win 1 ward that was majority Latino/Hispanic. Chicago’s 22nd Ward per the 2010 census data is 92.91% Latino, and yet Bernie Sanders won that Ward with 57.13% to 44.25%. This could have been the results with popular Cook County Commissioner Chuy Garcia’s endorsement of Bernie Sanders. Whatever the result was, Clinton under-performed her expectations among Latino’s in Chicago as the chart below shows:
So it’s clear that with Chicago’s Latino population, Bernie Sanders was the winner, which was outperforming his expectations. Now let’s take a look at how Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton did in Chicago Wards that are majority African-American. Continuing the trend of the primary so far, Clinton was the clear winner in these wards. But the results were closer to Michigan than South Carolina, where per Politico the exit polls said Sanders lost African-Americans 84 to 14%. But in majority African-American Wards, Clinton won on average 65% to 35%. If Bernie Sanders can improve this number as he has been in Northern States, this could be a significant positive in Milwaukee and other also in cities such as New York City and Philadelphia. Here is how Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton performed in wards that are majority African-American:
If Bernie Sanders can improve upon these numbers with African-American and Latino voters in Milwaukee, Philadelphia, New York City, and California (especially among Latino voters), it is possible he can exceed expectations. And while I have not looked at Milwaukee’s racial makeup yet, but if it similar to Chicago’s, Sanders has a very good chance at winning the Wisconsin primary.