Republican Turnout is Meaningless

While watching CNN, MSNBC, and reading various online publications, they all are discussing the record breaking turnout on the Republican side which implies doom on the Democratic side. While the the turnout among Democrats has been smaller than in 2008, this is not necessarily a predictor of what the turn out will be in November.

  • A larger turnout would only benefit Bernie Sanders and I could imagine for an ordinary voter, they might see the large lead Hillary Clinton has due to super delegates and it’s possible that they are discouraged from showing up. This does not necessarily mean they will not show up in November, even if Hillary Clinton is the nominee.
  • The Bernie media blackout is real, and he along with the Democratic race are barely being covered by the media since the Trump circus is getting them rankings. Just look at the comments from CBS Chairman and President Les Moonves, “It may not be good for America, but it’s damn good for CBS”  All this coverage of the Republican said naturally does three things, 1) increase the turnout for the Republican race, and 2) makes the race on the Democratic side appear like it’s a foregone conclusion that Hillary Clinton is the nominee, and 3) still leaves a large portion of the voters unfamiliar with Bernie Sanders. Again this does not mean that Democratic voters will not be turning out in November.
  • If you have Trump or Cruz as the nominee in November, do you really believe that moderate Republicans will end up voting for either of them over a Democratic nominee? Looking at the Real Clear Politics poll, it appears that both Clinton and Sanders will have an advantage over either of them:

     

  • Lastly, the rules for primaries and caucuses are different state by state compared to general elections. In some states you have to be a registered party member, or you have to follow confusing caucus rules. Again, if you don’t feel like the race is going to be competitive and basically pointless as the media keeps stating, you might be discouraged from participating.

So let’s not buy into the media’s narrative that the Republican turnout should be something that the Democrats should be too worried about in November. Democrats right now should be focused on debating the merit of policies and the records of the candidates running. Let’s worry about November after the convention.

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