A big blow to Bernie Sanders and his chances for winning the Democratic nomination for 2016, Hillary Clinton is projected to be the winner of the Nevada Caucuses by various media organizations.
While this will not mark the end of the Bernie campaign, this could very likely be the beginning of the end. Although I support Bernie, I do believe he has too many obstacles to overcome to become the nominee for the Democratic party.
- The Democratic establishment is all in for Clinton. The party is simply too scared of the word socialist to be supportive Sanders, and for good reason. Electability is an important factor when deciding on who to support, and let’s be real, Bernie would have an uphill battle in trying to convince independents during the general election. When independents hear socialist, they simply hear higher taxes on the middle-class.
- Clinton support among minority voters is overwhelming. When I was growing up during the Bill Clinton years, I often heard him referred to as the “first black president.” The Clinton’s have had strong favorability with the African-American community, which will help Hillary win South Carolina. Also as stated in my point above, the Latino establishment (i.e. Luis Gutierrez, and other Latino leaders) are hammer at Bernie with his vote against the failed immigration bill in 2007.
- Obama and others are behind Clinton. Even though the President, Vice President, and others have not “endorsed” Clinton, it is pretty clear they are working behind the scene in gathering support for her.
- What is Bernie’s path? What contests will Bernie be able to win? If the Clinton has nearly all the super delegates, the support of the establishment, and the minority vote, what states can Sanders win? I don’t see him winning enough contests to get majority backing of delegates at the convention.
- Lost momentum. The story until March 1st will now be Sanders campaign has lost momentum.
While I maybe wrong, the future of the Sanders campaign does not look as bright as it did after New Hampshire. The story out of Nevada will be that Clinton is back on track and that the Sanders campaign was just an interesting phenomenon.