So this morning, I got curious to see what the 2016 primary results in the city of Chicago could tell us about Wisconsin. I imagine the Milwaukee voters are similar to Chicago and this could potentially give us an insight to how Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton will do in that city. Listening to the pundits, Milwaukee appears to be a critical area of Wisconsin for Hillary Clinton, and for her to win the state, she will need to perform well in the city.
Even though Clinton won Illinois, it was a very close result, and Bernie Sanders out performed expectations. The expectations were raised significantly after his win in Michigan, but before Michigan no one expected Sanders to come close to Clinton. But Sanders nearly tied Clinton and it was very close to a tie.
The reason that Illinois was so close is Clinton under-performed in the city of Chicago. Looking at the results for the city, which can be found at the Chicago Board of Elections website, Clinton came in with 53.74% vs Sander at 45.27%. Clinton should have had a
significantly higher result in Chicago if we believe the conventional wisdom that Sanders doesn’t do well with minority. Per the 2010 Census, in the city of Chicago, African-Americans, and Latino-Americans make up just over 60% of the population, which are considered to be stronger supporters of Hillary Clinton than Bernie Sanders. So just based on this, Clinton should have had a greater advantage in Chicago than her results.
While watching CNN, MSNBC, and reading various online publications, they all are discussing the record breaking turnout on the Republican side which implies doom on the Democratic side. While the the turnout among Democrats has been smaller than in 2008, this is not necessarily a predictor of what the turn out will be in November.
A larger turnout would only benefit Bernie Sanders and I could imagine for an ordinary voter, they might see the large lead Hillary Clinton has due to super delegates and it’s possible that they are discouraged from showing up. This does not necessarily mean they will not show up in November, even if Hillary Clinton is the nominee.
The Bernie media blackout is real, and he along with the Democratic race are barely being covered by the media since the Trump circus is getting them rankings. Just look at the comments from CBS Chairman and President Les Moonves, “It may not be good for America, but it’s damn good for CBS” All this coverage of the Republican said naturally does three things, 1) increase the turnout for the Republican race, and 2) makes the race on the Democratic side appear like it’s a foregone conclusion that Hillary Clinton is the nominee, and 3) still leaves a large portion of the voters unfamiliar with Bernie Sanders. Again this does not mean that Democratic voters will not be turning out in November.
If you have Trump or Cruz as the nominee in November, do you really believe that moderate Republicans will end up voting for either of them over a Democratic nominee? Looking at the Real Clear Politics poll, it appears that both Clinton and Sanders will have an advantage over either of them:
Lastly, the rules for primaries and caucuses are different state by state compared to general elections. In some states you have to be a registered party member, or you have to follow confusing caucus rules. Again, if you don’t feel like the race is going to be competitive and basically pointless as the media keeps stating, you might be discouraged from participating.
So let’s not buy into the media’s narrative that the Republican turnout should be something that the Democrats should be too worried about in November. Democrats right now should be focused on debating the merit of policies and the records of the candidates running. Let’s worry about November after the convention.
If there is anything that should get Democrats excited this year is the prospect that Donald Trump is going to end up being the Republican Presidential nominee. I cannot think of a candidate that provides a greater contrast between the Republican Tea Party and Democrats when it comes to policy and the ability to govern. Nominating Donald Trump will be an implosion of a political party that has not been seen in modern US politics.
Every Democrat running for almost any office will be able to point to Trump and run against him instead of their actual opponent this November. The argument will be simple for November, “Do you trust a party that selected Trump as the their best candidate? ” Continue reading →
After the past few weeks, everything I see Hillary Clinton or one of her surrogates on speaking with the media, they are always slamming Bernie Sanders as a “single issue” candidate. And while Sanders does rally his supporters with income inequality has his top priority, he clear on many other issues and frequently discusses them (i.e. health care, climate change, Citizens United, education, immigration, etc.) Continue reading →
After a week of accusing George Bush for lying about WMD’s and the pretext for the Iraq war. Blaming Bush for being a sleep and allowing the September 11th attacks to happen. Getting into an argument with the Pope (really?) Trump still managed to win South Carolina by 10%.
It looks like attacking everything that Republicans hold dear is a strategy for winning the Republican nomination, and if tonight has taught us anything, it’s Donald Trump is the clear front runner, but Marco Rubio will be the candidate that the “establishment” rallies around. Continue reading →
A big blow to Bernie Sanders and his chances for winning the Democratic nomination for 2016, Hillary Clinton is projected to be the winner of the Nevada Caucuses by various media organizations.
While this will not mark the end of the Bernie campaign, this could very likely be the beginning of the end. Although I support Bernie, I do believe he has too many obstacles to overcome to become the nominee for the Democratic party. Continue reading →
Welcome to my blog, after being an obsessed observer of politics for most of my life, I made a decision that 2016 might be a good time to start sharing some of my views, analysis, and thoughts on the subject.
I believe I have a unique perspective based on my life experiences, and think some people might find it interesting.